Ratio Analysis of Industries * – May 2013
Industry: fall in turnover in 2012-13 (-8.3% amounting to 56.5 billion euro at constant prices), caused by the expected further sharp decline domestic demand for consumption and investment. Challenge even the less cyclical sectors.
The Italian industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn in sales, which for the biennium 2012 – 13 will be higher than 8%, amounting to 56.5 billion euro at constant prices. It will thus nullified the brief recovery of the previous two years and will hit a new low point in production, also lower than at the end of 2009. The fall in demand Inside, both for consumption and investment, will be only partially offset by sales abroad, provided for an improvement in 2013 despite the criminalization of the crisis of the euro area countries.
Unlike the 2008-09 crisis, the difficulties in the biennium 2012-13 will be disseminated to all manufacturing sectors, including those usually characterized by little cyclical profiles, such as food and beverage, consumer and pharmaceutical industry. better results than the previous crisis, though still negative, instead characterize the chemical intermediates , mechanical and metallurgy , all sectors with a propensity to export close to or above 60%, thus demonstrating the predominantly “inside” of the recession. The good results abroad at the high end of the range of products will not be enough to bring in a positive turnover of the undertakings of the fashion system . Most affected, with an increase of the already problematic conditions of excess production capacity, will be the areas related to durable goods ( furniture, motor vehicles and motorcycles, appliances ) and products and building materials .
The new drop in turnover, with an extension of the problem of excess production capacity, and financial balance conditions critical for a growing number of companies, will continue to fuel the processes of selection of domestic production base.
From the historical financial data emerges as companies best equipped in terms of economic and financial to deal with the current phase of tightening of the crisis tend to be larger than firms in difficulty strong , with some exceptions in traditional sectors such as food or fashion industry, but also in mechanics, in which even relatively small firms are able to obtain good results with niche products or high-end. It is also of business with an investment activity more consistent and higher productivity of capital invested in the business . Also contributes to higher productivity better management of working capital, the faster inventory turnover and the capacity / ability to keep collection times (and payment) relatively faster. Together, these features help to ensure their fin ancial structures in balance and a lower average cost of debt , in some cases up to 2-3 percentage points, compared to competitors in difficulty.
should boot from the recovery in the manufacturing 2014, due primarily to the acceleration of exports, which will push the trade balance over the 100 billion euro.
Starting from 2014, Italian industry should return to a path of growth, driven mainly by exports, expected in acceleration throughout the forecast horizon, and the partial improvement in domestic demand, particularly investment.
greater competitiveness that characterize media firms exit from the long crisis that will allow them to successfully seize the opportunities offered by foreign markets. The competitive strengthening of many manufacturing companies is also confirmed by the full integration into global supply chains, as shown by the data on the added value of Italian exports, and an appeal to foreign investment and technologies of ICT or greater than that of German companies, our main competitors in many areas.
remain, however, some important nodes. Already in our newsletter of January had been highlighted the criticality of the delay experienced by the retail sector in conveying the offer Italian industrial abroad. The analysis of the intensity of ICT investment, which is contained in this edition of the Report, also indicates the strong competitive gap accumulated by the sectors of services for businesses. The service industry is increasingly referred to as the driver of competitiveness of an industrial country, but in this field, unlike in manufacturing, Italy pays an important deficit competitive against the major European countries. growth, but in some cases the real modernization of entire sectors of the Italian economy is one of the major problems that the country is called to give a rapid response.
Another critical issue is represented by the internal market, which in all mature economies is the main element of support production growth. The crisis continued throughout 2013 and the slowness of the recovery in sales, they may have even more negative impacts on the spending power and savings of Italian households. This could compromise resilience of those businesses that operate primarily on the domestic market, a share still relevant despite the increasing propensity to export of our manufacturing, tap the expected 50% in the horizon of 2017.
The loss of spending power by Italian households and businesses and the most contemporary projection of the latter on the foreign markets will translate into a steady and significant improvement in the balance commercial manufacturing, able with its more than 100 billion euro surplus at the end of period balance also structural deficits on the energy front and back of the net position in foreign territory of Italy firmly positive.
In 2017 a new landscape sector: Winning the sectors and companies to greater international
The start of a recovery phase from 2014 does not allow you to completely write off the losses incurred in the long and difficult phase, begun in 2008. In 2017 consumption will be, in real terms, 10% lower compared to 2007 levels and investment will be even more adversely affected (-20%) while only foreign demand will be placed at a level of almost one-third higher.
In this context, the sectors and companies that will come out winners will not only be those with higher external projection. Overall turnover at constant prices of Italian manufacturing will remain 13% below 2007 levels, with some areas that will see its output reduced by more than 20% than before the crisis: products and building materials , furniture , motor vehicles and motorcycles , appliances , metal products and metallurgy .
The recovery in 2014-17 will be more intense in the areas of mechanical and ‘ electrical engineering , where the strong competitive position will be added to the best opportunities on the domestic market. In the case of confirmation by multinational enterprises of their production capacity in Italy, pharmaceutical consumer and cars and motorcycles should experience growth rates faster than the manufacturing average, mainly due to a high international profile. The expected growth in downstream sectors and the inclusion of more and more companies in the international supply chains will enable < span class="c7"> metal products to record similar performance . The complex situation in the steel industry, along with the gradual disappearance of the coupling induced by the export of precious metals, lead metallurgy to record growth rates similar to the average manufacturing industry, as well as other producers of intermediate goods ( other intermediates chemical intermediates ). Less dynamic in perspective, the fashion system, the appliances, i furniture
Average return on the upswing thanks to the release of weaker firms
The selection process of firms in difficulty and the moderate recovery in sales will allow for a gradual recovery in average margins of manufacturing . At the end of the period, gross operating margins as a percentage of sales are expected to exceed the threshold of 8%, with still a gap of about one percentage point compared to the previous decade, the result of strong competition in foreign markets and domestic demand away from its maximum in all sectors.
These same factors, however, will push companies towards a more marked recovery efficiency, which will result in an improvement in profitability (ROI) of more than 3 percentage points, ensuring a good self-financing capacity to the Italian manufacturing firms continue to support investments required by the competitive environment.
This situation however, will be more complex in the early years of the forecast, underscoring the urgency of appropriate tools to support the financial needs of Italian manufacturing firms, particularly in the most negative phases of the economic cycle.
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